January 2010

NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESS:
Extraordinary Optimism
(Released January 30, 2010)

Business activity started off 2010 strongly, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York (ISM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index jumped to 72.6 in January, the highest level since November 2006, from a revised 64.5 in December.

Seasonally-adjusted series have been recalculated using updated seasonal factors. This affects Current Business Conditions, the Six-Month Outlook and the NY-BCI from January 2005 to December 2009. Please contact the ISM-NY Business Survey Chair for the new historical data.

In a moonshot of future optimism, an extraordinary zero participants in the survey responded negatively about the outlook. The Six-Month Outlook index surged to 97.0 in January from a revised 81.4 in December.

Recovery in jobs and purchasing volumes continued. The Employment index came in at 54.2 in January from a revised 56.8 in December. The Quantity of Purchases index rose to 53.1 in January from 50.0 in December. Cost pressures stayed subdued. The Prices Paid index was 38.5 in January from a revised 35.1 in December.

Business Impediments: Like last month, "No difficulties" was the most popular response. Working capital shortages declined for a fifth straight month.

	Jan		Dec		Nov
Skilled labor shortage:	8%		8%		13%
Unskilled labor shortage	2%		0%		6%
Working capital shortage:	21%		22%		23%
Raw material shortage:	0%		3%		4%
Security concerns:	6%		8%		10%
Abnormal weather:	6%		11%		4%
"Other" difficulties:	10%		16%		23%
No difficulties:	29%		24%		21%

* * *

January's Question of the Month: In your opinion, the New York City region is currently in what type of environment for selling prices? The picture is more balanced between rising and falling this January, compared to last January when more than half of the respondents said that selling prices were falling.

Rising faster: 7% / 9% (Jan '10 / Jan '09)
Rising slower: 22% / 9%
Steady: 43% / 26%
Falling slower: 28% /50%
Falling faster: 0% / 6%

The ISM-New York REPORT ON BUSINESS is a monthly publication of ISM-New York. Permission is granted to duplicate, republish or quote in whole or in part with credit. For technical questions on the survey, please contact Jonathan Basile via phone: 212-538-1436 or email: jonathan.basile@credit-suisse.com

Download the current edition - January 2010 (PDF Edition)

Report on Business Archive