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June 2009

NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESS:
Not So Fast

(Released June 30, 2009)

New York City business activity contracted in June after expanding in May, according to the survey taken by the National Association of Purchasing Management-New York (NAPM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index fell to 44.8 in June from 61.3 in May.

Purchasing and supply management executives maintain the view that recovery could begin this year. The Six- Month Outlook index stayed above 50 for the fourth straight month, rising to 58.3 in June from 56.1 in May. Purchasing volume continued to contract, but by the smallest amount in months. The Quantity of Purchases index rose to a ten-month high of 34.6 in June from 32.6 in May.

Cost pressures remained depressed, but are no longer falling at a more rapid pace. The Prices Paid index came in at 30.8 in June from 25.0 in May. The jobs picture stayed soft. The Employment index fell to 28.2 in June from 33.7 in May. Business Impediments: There were fewer skilled labor shortages, while working capital shortages were by far the biggest concern.

  Jun   May   Apr  
Skilled labor shortage: 5%   15%   12%  
Unskilled labor shortage 0%   4%   4%  
Working capital shortage: 33%   30%   28%  
Raw material shortage: 3%   2%   6%  
Security concerns: 13%   11%   8%  
Abnormal weather: 3%   2%   0%  
"Other" difficulties: 23%   17%   22%  
No difficulties: 21%   15%   18%  


June's Question of the Month: What are your firm's plans for average selling prices of its goods or services during the next 6 months? An overwhelming number of respondents said selling prices would be steady, suggesting that they do not expect to have pricing power over the balance of the year.

Raise: 3%
Hold Steady: 90%
Lower: 7%


The NAPM-New York REPORT ON BUSINESS is a monthly publication of NAPM-New York. Permission is granted to duplicate, republish or quote in whole or in part with credit. For technical questions on the survey, please contact Jonathan Basile via phone: 212-538-1436 or email: jonathan.basile@credit-suisse.com


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